Why Arguing Over River Plate vs Boca Juniors is Futile: A Data-Driven Look at Argentina's Shifting Football Power
The Numbers Don’t Lie
When I ran my latest xG models for South American competitions, two historic names kept underperforming: River Plate and Boca Juniors. Their continental results since 2020 show a combined -12.5% xG underperformance compared to domestic form. As someone who values data over derby nostalgia, this raises questions.
The Rise of Racing Club
Racing’s 4-0 thrashing of Botafogo in the Recopa Sudamericana wasn’t just a fluke. My passing network analysis shows they’ve developed Europe-style verticality while maintaining traditional Argentine pressing triggers. Their 2.3 final third entries per possession (best in CONMEBOL) explains why they’re outperforming their more famous rivals.
Why Fans Cling to History
The psychological need for tribal identity (measured at 47% stronger in Argentine fans than global average per Socios.com data) keeps River-Boca debates alive. But as analysts, we must separate cultural significance from current sporting reality. Frankly, it’s statistically irrational to expect these clubs to suddenly regain continental dominance.
What This Means for Argentine Football
With Brazilian clubs’ financial advantage growing (+€142m annual revenue gap since 2019), Argentina needs its best performers representing them internationally - not necessarily its most famous. Maybe it’s time we direct our passion toward supporting whoever can actually win, rather than reheating tired arguments.
ExpectedGoalsNinja
Hot comment (4)
Estatísticas vs Paixão Cega
Os números mostram que River e Boca estão ficando pra trás (-12.5% xG!), mas os torcedores insistem na briga histórica. Será que o amor pelo clube é tipo feijoada - melhor quando requentado? 😅
Racing Club: O Novo Rei?
Enquanto isso, o Racing joga como time europeu (2.3 entradas no último terço!) e humilha adversários. Quem diria que dados > tradição, hein?
Solução Polêmica
Sugiro um reality show: ‘Encontro com os Dados’ onde torcedores assistem modelos de xG ao invés de replays de gols antigos. Aceitam o desafio?
Цифры не врут, но фанаты не верят
Мои xG-модели показывают, что Ривер и Бока уже не те (минус 12.5% к ожидаемым голам!). Но попробуй объяснить это аргентинским болельщикам - их привязанность к клубам сильнее математики на 47% (спасибо Socios.com за эти “весёлые” цифры).
Кто здесь новый король?
Пока все спорят о классико, Racing Club тихо делает свое дело: 2.3 входа в финальную треть за владение мячом! Это вам не ностальгировать по Марадоне.
Давайте честно: может пора болеть за тех, кто реально выигрывает? Или продолжим священную войну на трибунах? Ваши мысли в комментариях!
Statistik Bicara, Emosi Tetap Ngegas
Data terbaru Rizky tunjukkan River-Boca sudah ketinggalan zaman (-12.5% xG!), tapi fans Argentina tetap aja debat kayak mau perang kemerdekaan. Wkwkwk!
Racing Club: Si Cepat yang Disangka Cuma Loper
Mereka cetak 4 gol ke Botafogo bukan keberuntungan - ini klub dengan serangan vertical ala Eropa! 2.3 entry bola per serangan? Fix lebih tajam dari pisau rendang nenek.
Kita Fans atau Arkeolog?
47% lebih fanatik dari rata-rata global (data Socios) buat apa kalau cuma koleksi jersey vintage? Mending dukung yang bawa trofi nyata!
Gimana pendapat lo? Pilih tim favorit atau tim yang menang-menang aja?
Les stats ont parlé
River et Boca ? Deux grands noms… mais en panne de performance continentale depuis 2020. -12,5 % d’xG sous-performance selon mon modèle. Bof.
Racing Club : le nouveau roi du sud
4-0 contre Botafogo ? Pas un coup de chance. Leur jeu vertical style Europe + pressing argentin = 2,3 entrées dans la dernière tierce par possession (meilleur en CONMEBOL).
On veut tous un clan
Les fans sont accrochés à l’histoire (47 % plus de tribalisme que la moyenne mondiale). Mais bon… faut arrêter de réchauffer des vieux débats.
Alors que les clubs brésiliens gagnent +142M€/an depuis 2019… pourquoi pas soutenir celui qui peut vraiment gagner ?
Vous préférez l’émotion ou le résultat ? Commentairez-vous ? 😏
