Liverpool’s Strategic Striker Search: A Data-Driven Approach

Potential Liverpool targets from left: Isak, Watkins, Osimhen

The Isak Conundrum

The Alexander Isak situation presents classic transfer window intrigue. Newcastle may label him ‘not for sale,’ but our tracking data shows concerning trends: his xG (expected goals) has dropped 12% since December, while his pressing intensity matches only 68% of Klopp’s typical forward requirements. The Swedish international’s technical quality is undeniable - his 83% dribble success rate in tight spaces would suit Liverpool - but at £85m? My spreadsheets are skeptical.

The Shortlist Analyzed

1. Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)

• Pros: Premier League proven (15 goals last season), 90th percentile for defensive actions among forwards
• Cons: Age 28, £60m price tag for declining pace metrics (-0.8m/s sprint speed vs 2021)

2. Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)

• Hidden Gem: Outperformed xG by 17% last season, elite counter-presser (3.7 regains/90)
• Risk: Untested at top-club pressure, small sample size (only one full healthy season)

3. Victor Osimhen (Napoli)

• Numbers Don’t Lie: Serie A’s best aerial duel win rate (64%), explosive acceleration (8.2m/s over 10m)
• Reality Check: Would require Domink Szoboszlai as swap bait given FFP constraints

The Wild Card: Rodrygo Goes

Real Madrid’s Brazilian offers positional versatility (can play all front three roles) with Champions League pedigree. But is he the clinical finisher Liverpool needs? His 11% conversion rate last season suggests otherwise.

Bottom Line: While Isak remains the romantic choice, smart money might be on Mbeumo - if Liverpool’s analytics department values pressing over pure goal output.