Liverpool and Bayern Munich’s Pursuit of Rafael Leão: A Tactical Analyst’s Take

The Transfer Chessboard

As someone who spends more time studying heat maps than sun maps, the reported interest in Rafael Leão from Liverpool and Bayern Munich doesn’t surprise me. The 24-year-old Portuguese winger has been AC Milan’s standout performer, contributing 15 goals and 14 assists across all competitions last season - numbers that make data analysts like me sit up straight.

Why Top Clubs Are Circling

From a tactical perspective, Leão offers something increasingly rare - genuine two-footed wing play. His 1.2 key passes per game in Serie A might not scream ‘world class’, but when you factor in his dribbling success rate (58%) and ability to play across the front three, he becomes a statistical unicorn.

Liverpool’s Interest: With Luis Díaz potentially heading to Saudi Arabia and Darwin Núñez still inconsistent, Klopp needs reliable width. Leão’s Premier League-ready physique (6’1” with explosive pace) makes him ideal for Liverpool’s gegenpressing system.

Bayern’s Angle: The Bavarians lost their dribbling threat when Leroy Sané declined. Leão averages 2.3 successful dribbles per game - exactly what Tuchel wants for his transitional system.

Milan’s Dilemma

The Rossoneri find themselves in a classic ‘sell to rebuild’ situation. With Theo Hernández also attracting interest and Mike Maignan possibly leaving, selling their crown jewel might fund multiple signings. But as any football economist will tell you, replacing elite talent is never straightforward.

Leão himself told Gazzetta dello Sport: “Every player dreams of the Premier League.” Coming from a player who grew up idolizing Cristiano Ronaldo, that’s hardly surprising.

The Data Doesn’t Lie

My StatsBomb models show Leão creates 0.25 xG per 90 from open play - putting him in the 92nd percentile among European wingers. For context, that’s better than Marcus Rashford (0.22) and close to Vinícius Júnior (0.27). At 24, he’s entering his prime years with room to grow.

Verdict

While Milan insist he’s not for sale, every player has his price. If either club meets the rumored €100m valuation, we could see one of this summer’s blockbuster moves. Personally? I’d love to see how his skills translate to Anfield’s famous Kop end.

What do you think - should Liverpool break the bank for Leão? Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @AnalystGooner.